Shanghai-based New Pacific Consulting Now a Member of The Parthenon Group

I am extremely pleased to announce today the merger of New Pacific Consulting, a Shanghai-based consulting firm, with The Parthenon Group. New Pacific Consulting is a leader in providing advisory services to private equity firms and industrial companies investigating opportunities in China. This merger adds a fifth member to the worldwide number of Parthenon Group offices - Boston, London, Mumbai, San Francisco, and now Shanghai - and brings to about 300 our total representatives across the planet. Below I've assembled a few links to further describe the merger, and the benefits it extends to the entire Parthenon Group and its clients.

• An Asian Venture Capital Journal article summarizing the merger.
• The Parthenon Group press release.
• The rebranded New Pacific Consulting website.
• A Parthenon.com webpage highlighting the new Shanghai office.

New Webcast: Coping with Global Deficit Reduction

In this 45-minute presentation, Parthenon's Chief Economist, Roger Brinner, our Deputy Chief Economist, Richard DeKaser, and I present our further analysis of the ongoing economic situation. The events of the past few months have been extraordinary, and turbulence seems to be the new norm. A close inspection of the lay of the land is more necessary than ever. Join us as we examine the data, and work to predict the terrain ahead.

http://www.parthenon.com/ThoughtLeadership/TheEconomicChallengeCopingwithGlobalDeficitReduction

Mistaken Identity?

 

I'm not certain how I ended up crooning the other night with Jane Krakowski. Could it be my stunning resemblance to Alec Baldwin? She may have confused the two of us. I get that a lot.

Consultants of the Year

The Parthenon Group won the "consultants of the year" award at the Education Investor ceremony held last month in London.

I am extremely proud of the entire team, and of the work we accomplish in our unique education practice, the  Education Centre of Excellence. The Centre certainly has had a busy and productive year. Get the whole story in this recent press release (pdf).

http://www.parthenon.com/GetFile.aspx?u=%2fLists%2fPressReleases%2fAttachments%2f63%2fEducationInvestorAward_PressRelease_FINAL.pdf

The Unfortunate and Ultimate Paradox

For much of our nation’s history, most folks would assert that a divided government was far superior to a united one. Only mature legislation with the backing of both parties would pass. Everything else would either simmer until done or be turned down from the start. Of course, all this was back when elected officials were esteemed and expected to practice the art of compromise.

Business was fairly content with this state of affairs. Government was less likely to “regulate” (read obstruct) and more inclined to keep the wheels churning on the mighty engine of American commerce — even if at a sometimes lumbering and bloated pace. “Let the market reign!” was the guiding philosophy, and this permitted business to operate with modest interference.

Today, after a lean regimen of necessary self-discipline, we find most businesses at the best fighting weight of their lifetimes, with new capabilities now within their reach. Break evens are down, excess costs have been squeezed out, margins and cash balances are at all time highs. Interest rates are effectively zero for good credit corporations. Technology abounds with 4G and the cloud to guarantee further productivity improvements.

When I asked our Chief Economist, Roger Brinner, and Deputy Chief Economist, Richard DeKaser, to diagnose the current market valuation of the S&P 500, they concluded that this index today is 50% undervalued.

To what do we owe the honor of this tremendous discrepancy? In a nutshell, Western governments on both sides of the Atlantic have finally and unmistakably reached their collective D-Day. Yet having passed the buck for so long, they seem incapable of coming to their senses on what next to do. We are surrounded by a perfect storm in which we all now realize that we spend more than we make and that to continue on this path spells certain doom. Interestingly, we knew how this story would unfold last year, a decade ago, even a generation ago. A funny thing about the science of demography: it predicts perfectly a generation in advance! What we didn't know was the immigration side of the equation, but there are plenty of models to predict that factor as well.

So, how do we unlock the full potential of the world economy?

Business and the community of economists seem uncharacteristically aligned. Stimulate in the short run and restructure the income statement and balance sheet in the long run. The latter comprises a combination of increases in tax revenues through more efficient tax policies like gasoline taxes, consumptions taxes, elimination of the myriad of special interest loopholes that exist (at least in the USA), and primarily spending cuts in the arena of entitlements. The blueprints are there for the taking. In the US, we have Simpson/Bowles, the Gang of Six, and Rivlin/Domenci. In Europe, similar groups of practical persons have put forth bold and serious proposals.

Comprehensive and workable solutions exist. No miracles are needed. It takes one thing and one thing only: political will. Unfortunately, there appear to be no leaders ready to rise above the fray to win the hearts and minds of the people. We see no Reagans, no Kohls, no Thatchers on the horizon gifted with that extraordinary talent to inspire their countrymen to work together for the common good.

Resolution of the Euro crisis trumps solving the US deficit crisis. The former contributes two-thirds to the under valuation and the latter one-third.

My view is that business leaders need to unite now to put irresistible pressure on our elected officials. We are the folks who know how to seed an economy and make it grow. We are the folks who know how to compromise and move on. We are the folks the candidates all come to for campaign contributions. Let them hear our voices. We must force our politicians to desist their partisan nonsense, to face the unavoidable realities, to compromise and to act.

This can be bigger and better than the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street movements combined. No refugee tents in city parks, no outlandish placards or weird looking hats, no silly extremes of ideological lunacy. Just normal, hard working citizens willing to sacrifice if we can get our game plan of practical solutions adopted and permit the next generation the opportunity afforded us by the Greatest Generation of World War II.

Good times are there for the having. We need only the courage and motivation to usher them in. Politicians should not be allowed to impede the progress of the people. Government needs to accede to the wishes of the majority or be thrown out.

Related : In this latest webcast, "Lead or Be Led by Fear," Parthenon's Chief Economist, Roger Brinner, provides the analysis behind our view that an immobilizing fear has in effect depressed equity markets by approximately 45 percent.

2011 UNICEF Children's Champion Award Event

Last week my wife, Alli, and I helped to co-chair a UNICEF fundraising event along with two other couples. At this gathering, the U.S. Fund for UNICEF presented singer/musician Sting and UNICEF UK Ambassador Trudie Styler with its annual Children's Champion Award. Both Sting and Styler have been very active in UNICEF causes. The event last week raised a reported $1.15M for UNICEF's global child survival programs, which was announced as a record-breaking amount.

The UNICEF USA website has a news release describing the event, as well as further details on the grim plight of children suffering around the world and the heroic work UNICEF does to help them. I cannot speak highly enough of the good work this organization performs, and I know Alli feels passionately about UNICEF's mission. We both urge anyone who feels so inclined to contact UNICEF and learn more about its great humanitarian efforts.

• UNICEF USA News Release on the 2011 Children's Champion Award event
• Small Flickr set of photos from the event
• Larger set of photos at the website of photographer Bill Brett

Margot Rogers, former Chief of Staff to the U.S. Secretary of Education, joins Parthenon

It's a distinct privilege to be able to welcome Margot Rogers to The Parthenon Group. Please see the press release below for all the elaboration.

http://www.parthenon.com/GetFile.aspx?u=%2fLists%2fPressReleases%2fAttachments%2f16%2fMargotRogersJoinsTheParthenonGroup.pdf

Not So Fast

In our view, President Obama and Chairman Bernanke have taken undeserved global grief of late. Those new, self-crowned masters of economic policy — Germany, China, Britain, and Brazil — evidently felt it time to teach the President and Chairman their course in macroeconomics. We say, not so fast. The over-arching truths are that...

http://www.parthenon.com/ThoughtLeadership/NotSoFast

Follow the link above to read our full analysis, "Not So Fast," in the latest edition of Parthenon Perspectives.

First Pitch at Fenway

Having the opportunity to throw the first pitch at the August 5th, 2010, game at Fenway was a real hoot and a half. The Sox went on to triumph over the Indians, 6 to 2. I'm not saying my pitch set the winning tone for the rest of the evening but, I mean, hey... you know. Come on. Right?

 

What is Today's Economic Outlook?

Once again our Chief Economist at Parthenon, Roger Brinner, and I team up online to offer our thoughts on the economic outlook as of May 2010. We give our analysis of the following:

• The "Great Recession" in Historical Perspective
• The Range of Opinion on the Outlook
• Global Comparison
• Facts and Myths: Consumer Behavior
• Challenges to the Recovery After 2010

 Follow the link below to our webcast, as well as a slideshow presentation in pdf.

http://www.parthenon.com/ThoughtLeadership/WebcastTheEconomicOutlookFactsVersusPunditsAnecdotes

Harvard Business Publishing Video interview

A two-part interview I gave to "Cue Ball" for the Harvard Business Publishing video series has been posted online at Blip.tv.

While I can't say precisely when the interview was uploaded, its theme syncs pretty closely with the message we presented in "Creating Hot Opportunities in a Cold Economy." The thumbnail image below links to part-one. Total running time of both parts: approx. 10 minutes. I kept it brief because I know how busy you are. You're welcome.

Creating Hot Opportunities in a Cold Economy

Everyone knows the value of turning adversity into opportunity. "When life gives you lemons, you make lemonade!" It's an inspiring credo, to be sure, but - is there any sugar left in the cupboard?

In our latest issue of "Parthenon Perspectives," the question we address is whether there is objective evidence to show companies can actually achieve this goal given the current economic environment. Our conclusion? A resounding "Yes!"

So, may we pour you an iced-cold glass of refreshing indicators? Follow the link below to read the two-part article at the Parthenon.com website. You'll also find a few tasty multimedia treats, including an hour-long webcast and a conference slideshow presentation.

http://www.parthenon.com/ThoughtLeadership/CreatingHotOpportunitiesinaColdEconomy

When the Eagles Are Silent, the Parrots Begin to Jabber

While the present economic downturn may rattle the timid, the more perceptive observers see tremendous opportunity for growth and advancement.

In a new "Parthenon Perspective," my colleague, Roger Brinner, and I offer our analysis of the current business climate. Read it here at the Parthenon.com website:

http://www.parthenon.com/ThoughtLeadership/WhentheEaglesAreSilenttheParrotsBegintoJabber

Dawn Hudson - former Pepsi-Cola President & CEO, North America - joins us at Parthenon

It is with real pleasure that I welcome Dawn Hudson to our firm. Please see the press release below for full details.

http://www.parthenon.com/GetFile.aspx?u=%2fLists%2fPressReleases%2fAttachments%2f2%2fpressRelease_Hudson.pdf

Welcome!

To all who dare venture here - thanks very much for visiting my blog!

I created this space to have a personal venue on the web to share my thoughts and opinions, independent of my position as chairman and managing partner of The Parthenon Group. Often, no doubt, I will posts links to material my colleagues and I have published on the Parthenon website and elsewhere. This is inevitable as most of my energy and focus are directed toward The Parthenon Group. But not entirely. As the blog develops, I hope my different interests will emerge clearly enough. The life motto "work hard, play hard" has always resonated strongly with me. I've tried to do both to my utmost. I intend to keep at it. On this blog I'll share both sides of those two dimensions, as I consider them complementary. And obviously everything published here is solely my own opinion.

Again, thanks for stopping by. I hope you'll become a regular visitor at Bill's Bullpen.